US Business Leaders' Confidence Declines Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks

Confidence among business leaders in the United States has sharply declined, with a notable 82% expressing heightened concerns about their companies’ futures compared to earlier this year. This downturn is detailed in the latest midyear report from Sentry, titled 2026 C-Suite Stress Index: Midyear Report, which revisits insights from the original survey conducted late last year.

This survey highlights a significant shift in executive sentiment, primarily driven by changing trade policies, geopolitical tensions, and operational disruptions that have profoundly impacted planning and risk management strategies. An overwhelming 98% of the executives surveyed acknowledged that recent events have forced them to reevaluate their long-term planning approaches.

Particularly alarming is the experience of smaller businesses. Among executives working for companies with 10 to 49 employees, 90% reported increased concerns—up 21 percentage points from January. In contrast, only 69% of those at larger firms, specifically those with over 1,000 employees, shared this level of anxiety, illustrating a stark difference in resilience between smaller and larger businesses.

The repercussions of current geopolitical events are tangible for small business leaders. A striking 65% stated they've already witnessed negative effects stemming from these disruptions, while 95% feel ill-equipped to adapt to rapidly developing external risks. Brett Hoopingarner, Sentry's national sales director, emphasized this vulnerability, noting that smaller firms face unique challenges that larger entities might absorb more comfortably.

“Resilience isn't about the size of a business; it's about the ability to adjust,” Hoopingarner remarked, suggesting that smaller firms that engage closely with trusted advisors make more informed decisions during these turbulent times.

The data reveals an increase in specific concerns among executives. Anxiety around supply chain and logistics disruptions surged by 17 percentage points to 62%, while fears regarding tariff and trade uncertainties rose by 13 points to 52%. Meanwhile, worries about labor shortages jumped by 11 points, now affecting 49% of respondents.

Such trends align closely with findings from advisory firms like Marsh, which have pointed towards a persistent elevation in trade friction, and Allianz Trade, which recently indicated that nearly 90% of industries now face medium to high sensitivity risk zones.

In response to these challenges, executives are not standing idle. A significant 70% have proactively shortened planning horizons, while 61% are incorporating more contingencies into their strategic frameworks. Executives are especially struggling with the complexities of geopolitical risks, with 88% admitting that the rapid evolution of these risks complicates accurate management.

Jeff Cole, assistant vice president at Sentry, noted the evolving nature of risks this year, stating, “The pace of change and the interconnectivity of risks are shifting how businesses must manage their exposures.” He highlighted that organizations that frequently reassess their risk profiles generally cultivate greater flexibility in their decision-making processes.

This evolving landscape presents an opportunity for brokers and agents serving small to midsize clients. Those leading businesses with fewer than 50 employees are particularly vulnerable to tariff-related disruptions and are increasingly looking for strategic guidance. This aligns with findings from Gallagher, which revealed that 63% of business owners were concerned about supply chain disruptions in 2026, despite many being unaware of their limited coverage against tariff-related business interruption.

In light of the recent Supreme Court ruling that curtailed the government's authority regarding broad emergency tariffs, the legal landscape remains unsettled. Although this ruling does not eliminate the risks associated with trade policies, it reflects the ongoing uncertainty that brokers must navigate when advising clients on contingency strategies.

Brokers representing smaller clients can take immediate steps based on the data above. A thorough review of contingent business interruption coverage and clauses relating to supply-chain dependencies is advised. This proactive measure can address gaps in coverage that are likely to emerge only after a disruption, reinforcing the need for ongoing client communication in a shifting policy environment.